Subscribe to Occasional Observations to receive new posts directly to your inbox.
Bearing a whole bunch of assumptions, these are some implications I've been collecting & exploring. There's more to add for sure — holler if you've got any — and I intend to add some commentary at some point. We'll see.
↑ Ease of a low-tech savvy individual making their own tools
↓ Cost of a low-tech savvy individual making various tools they need to do their job
↑ People making what they, and only they, need to do a job in a way that’s uniquely suited to them
↓ Risk of starting something new
↓ Initial cost of starting something new
↓ Cost of distribution
↓ Need to learn distribution tools
↓ Amount of overhead to grow a company
↓ Risk of growing something new
↓ Risk of shutting down underperforming concepts
↑ Other concepts going after the same space
↑ Breadth of distribution of dollars spent on others’ software - when users buy software, it’s from a broader range of smaller builders
↑ Affordability of software
↓ Risk of buying a piece of software
↑ Number of independent software buyers
↑ Overall serviceable/obtainable market size
↓ Number of large, genericized software applications
↓ Number of massive enterprises built around large, genericized software tools
↑ Size of a few foundational platforms that enable a broad range of tools and flexibility
↓ Size of funding rounds necessary to reach critical mass
↑ Number of projects funded per fund
↓ Patience for performance
↓ Follow-on rounds
↑ Investment in core technology vendor (as a function of usage & tokens, not just seats)
↓ Number of point-solution tools
↑ Number of individual-level experience variations
